4/n it’s also the case that most of us are just not well-informed enough about processes and details; we have placards that say “system change now”, but would it not sometimes be better to at least understand what specific commitments our governments need to make at what points and ask for those? I am inspired in all this by this photo by #GuyShrubsole during #COP26 But fully acknowledge my take may be naive, uninformed and misguided itself.
6/n #ClimateDiary Today, in response to all the thought-provoking replies to this 🧵yesterday, an EDIT to post 2, above: it was not right to dismiss misgivings about #COP28 as cynical; and also to try and steer people! Just wanted to clarify that am not saying that focusing on #COP28 is the only thing that we should all be doing now, on the contrary, we need #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce. Just that for now i feel i want to pay attention & thought i could share things here.
7/n Today sharing this #DeepStateRadio podcast, with host David #Rothkopf and @MichaelEMann, about #OurFragileMoment. It’s about much more than #COP28 but provides good context - in particular the role of #BadActors like #Murdoch and the #Koch brothers
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000630044822
8/n Rothkopf mentions the “On the Road to #COP28” podcast series #DeepStateRadio are doing. I haven’t listened to any of them yet but look forward to doing so. Here the latest, Episode 3, on #GreenGrowth, with Peter #Kalmus and others
https://thedsrnetwork.com/the-road-to-cop-28-episode-3-green-growth-part-1/
9/n #ClimateDiary Have been a bit quiet here with this #COP28 series this week, due to events elsewhere (#Israel #Gaza) and international responses. But the two are linked: by an underlying, deeply worrying crisis in #Multilateralism. Just when we need it most, the international order is weaker than ever. Here an excellent piece on this ny Nathalie Tocci.
10/n #ClimateDiary I've been feeling so despondent about the state of the world and the prospects for #COP28 that I found myself unable to continue this series, or in fact write much at all here. @kathhayhoe: a few months back we had an exchange about #Hope, when I argued that I wasn't driven by hope as much as #DesperateDetermination. But I now recognise just how debilitating true hopelessness is, and that it is indeed a problem. I don't think I've ever had such a low. BUT:
11/n I just watched the WRI webinar "Responding to the Climate Crisis in Times of Uncertainty: A Clarion for Climate Leadership", and I am so very glad I did. Informative and inspiring, it brought home to me again just how crucial #COP28 (and #COP29 and #COP30 - all three) really are.
Now is not the time to give up on #Multilateralism. As Tina Stege, the brilliant #ClimateEnvoy for the #MarhsallIslands said: "We don't have a choice".
12/n I will share the webinar recording here as soon as it's available, and am fully resolved to continue this series. I am not an expert or insider, so may get things wrong, but I believe it's really important to stay engaged, to understand what's at stake, and yes, also just to do your bit, however small, to keep faith in #COP28 and #Multilateralism alive. Just because the more of us take it seriously, the better chances of success we have
Edit: Here the recording
13/n #ClimateDiary decided to do a little #COP28 #Glossary here: brief explainers of key terms, familiar to many of you no doubt but perhaps useful to have in one place.
Starting with #GlobalStocktake. The #GST was part of the #ParisAgreement: that every 5 years stock would be taken of where global policies and actions are at in terms of reducing carbon/green house gas emissions in order to stay under 1.5°C warming. This will be the first GST, and it’s important
14/n However, as has been evident for some time there is a significant #EmissionsGap - the gap between where emissions need to be at in order to keep warming below 1.5°C or even between 1.5°C-2°C, abs where they really are. This year’s #UNEP #EmissionsGapReport will form the basis for the GST.
15/n an important distinction needs to be made here between the commitments so far made by countries (##NationallyDeterminedContributions or #NDCs - more on these below) which are currently estimated to lead to 1.7-2.1°C warming by 2100 (which wouldn’t be too bad) and actual trajectories, fossil fuel licenses given etc. So there are several gaps: between where we need to be, pledges (NDCs), and actual practices
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/global-stocktake-unlocking-trillions-climate-action
#ClimateDiary 16/n apologies for pause in this #COP28 🧵. Now only 6 days to go until it starts (30th Nov) - stepping up again! To continue with #Glossary a bit more: #NationallyDeterminedContributions (NDCs) are what each country pledges to do - voluntarily. There is no binding obligation; this is how the #ParisAgreement finally happened. You csn read more here:
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs
17/n Each country updates its #NDCs annually; here, for example, is the 2022 UK one. There is also a website where all NDCs are listed; I will add this when I find it! #COP28
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-09/UK%20NDC%20ICTU%202022.pdf
18/n One of the (few) successes of #COP26 in #Glasgow was the establishment of an #AnnualRatchet : NDCs have to be “ratched up” every year, and they can’t go back. In theory, the #RatchetMechanism IS a good system
19/n After #COP26 i really thought that surely the #Ratchet and NDCs were where we should focus - climate activists in each country putting pressure on their governments to improve their NDCs substantially every year. But it turned out that i was alone in this. Like, even a year or so on, when i searched ratchet or NDCs in Twitter, i quickly came to my own tweets! Others explained this lack of interest in disillusion. Maybe but I am still a bit curious why noone ever talks about this.
20/n Anyway sceptics were probably right: this year’s #GlobalStocktake synthesis report has shown that, so far, the ratchet hasn’t worked well enough; all governments, all NDCs are falling abysmally short of what’s needed.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09E.pdf
Here also a good #CarbonBrief Q&A on the Global Stock Take
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/
21/n Another key concern at #COP28 is #LossAndDamage. This was the one area where there was real progress at #COP27 last year in Egypt: for the first time, countries agreed to set up a fund for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. Loss and Damage is simultaneously essential and deeply inadequate as a #ClimateJustice measure: no amount of money is going to compensate for the loss of entire Islands or cities! But it must be provided
22/n A couple of weeks ago, at a pre-COP28 meeting in #AbuDhabi, there was further real progress, when rich and poor country governments managed to agree on a blue-print of the #LossAndDamage fund. This will be announced officially in #Dubai at #COP28 next week, but it’s really good this is already in place - now we “just” need actual money to start materialising.
23/n Another big theme at #COP28 is wider #ClimateFinance, beyond Loss and Damage. This includes generating more private #investment; reforming Multilateral Development Banks (#MDBs) to better address #ClimateChange; and strengthening the #NetworkForGreeningTheFinancialSystem (#NGFS)
Not my field at ALL, but I found this article provides a useful short introduction
24/n But the biggest - most important but also most difficult - task at #COP28 will be to make real progress on the phasing out of #FossilFuels. This is the crux of the matter- and so many forces stacked up against this, what with it taking place in #petrolstate and all!
For the next few days, this is what I will focus on in this 🧵 - what’s at stake, but also how some parties are deliberately delaying action.
For today, will end with this useful #COP28 scorecard:
#ClimateDiary #COP28 🧵 (no insider knowledge, just trying to stay informed and thought I might share a few things)
25/n So, on phasing out of #fossilfuels: it is obvious that a) many countries/parties are refusing to commit to the complete phasing out of fossil fuels countries, and b) there is, as always, a whole forest of terms and clauses to come to grips with, obfuscating things. You can see this from this overview of positions of by #CarbonBrief:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-who-wants-what-at-the-cop28-climate-change-summit/
26/n Two somewhat confusing terms that seems to be used a lot this year are #Abated and #Unabated #FossilFuels. What does this mean?
On the face of it, "Unabated" is when fossil fuels are burnt and the emissions end up in the air, just like that. "Abating", or reducing, those emissions would require restrictions such as technologies to capture and bury #CO2 etc. However, in practice these terms are very ambiguous and unhelpful, helping #ClimateDelay parties.
https://www.context.news/net-zero/cop28-climate-dispute-what-are-unabated-fossil-fuels
27/n It's worth highlighting the #HighAmbitionCoalition here, who released this statement a month ago, explaining why they want to phase out #FossilFuels entirely, and why "abating" is misleading and NOT the way forward (we don't have the technologies yet!). There are 16 African (eg #Kenya, European (eg #Netherlands) and small island countries (eg #Tuvalu and #Vanuatu) in this coalition:
28/n However, many other countries, including #US, #India #China and #UAE oppose this and are going for "Phasing DOWN of Unabated Fossil Fuels Emissions", instead of Phasing OUT of all fossil fuel emissions. Which sounds quite similar and quite good, but actually really works to allow fossil fuels to continue as long as possible. Sultan Al Jaber, president of #COP28 but also, of course, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has this position. So not good. But:
29/n Don't forget that as recently as three years ago (I think), #FossilFuels were not even mentioned in COP documents! So there is some progress, in that at least all this is being debated and talked about. #COP28 may well be quite a fractious for these reasons, and chances for phasing OUT of all fossil fuels being decided on are more than slim, but at least it's on the table.
30/n Nevertheless, critics are definitely 100% right that #Greenwashing and #ClimateDelay will dominate at #COP28. One reason for this alone is Al Jaber's reliance on the consultancy firm #McKinseys in running #COP28. McKinseys have worked for many fossil fuel companies for years, and it telling, alarming and chilling in equal measures that they are so involved
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2023/11/08/companies/mckinsey-climate-change-whistleblowers/
31/n by the way, when you put 'McKinsey COP28' into Google, as I just did, trying to find the critical articles exposing this a couple of weeks ago, all you get is McKinsey itself - it all looks very good, very committed, but don't be fooled! This kind of 'sustainability' is a prime example of the corporate capture of #Sustainability - another word, of course, that is so ambiguous that it is endlessly misused and appropriated.
#ClimateDiary 32/n And of course the big story to add to 🧵 today is the revelation that the #UAE was/is planning to use #COP28 talks to make #oil deals with other countries. Infuriating, depressing - yes; surprising - no. Using official meetings for other, directly contradictory deals is kind of common practice. Perfect opportunity, having everyone together!
But does this mean we should forget about #COP28 and COPs in general? In my view - also no.
33/n Surely scrutiny, attention, criticism is exactly what we need more of, not less, at this moment? Saying this also in response to your reply here yesterday, @breadandcircuses (pasted in here)
For me, engaging with the #COP28 is not at all born from trust in oil barons, on the contrary. Really. It is precisely because I don’t trust them that I feel we can’t disengage or just leave them to it; we need to keep on engaging, understanding processes, keeping up pressure.
https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses/111477105941127593
34/n Yes, I know. #COP28 is greenwashing, theatre, corrupt - all of this. But it is the only global climate forum, the only forum where small island Nations have any sort of power and audience, as Tina Stege, the #climateenvoy for the #MarshallIslandsx recently reminded us (see 11/n ⬆️) and what happens there really matters! So we need to do whatever we can (v little i know) to steer things towards better outcomes, not disengage. Here another TS interview, v powerful too
35/n Another lovely term to look out for at #COP28 is the “Oil Demand Sustainability Programme" or #ODSP - essentially a plan to drive UP the use of #FossilFuels in #Africa, as rich countries increasingly switch to clean energy. Thank you @ariadne
for drawing our attention to this! As Ariadne says, it is just like what was done with #tobacco - now that smoking is curtailed in Global North, Indonesia is the smoking capital of the world; that’s the market now.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/revealed-saudi-arabia-plan-poor-countries-oil
36/n I am thinking again now of my recent visit to #Dodoma (yes, HUGE flying guilt, see many posts about this), the new, rapidly expanding capital of #Tanzania. Everywhere you looked, new petrol stations were being built. You can’t and shouldn’t blame African countries entering these development paths, but there are many discussions about this within #Africa.
37/n One idea (another addition to this #COP28 #glossary of sorts) discussed for the last couple of years in this context is that #Africa might #LeapFrog in its #EnergyTransition - ie, that it doesn't have to go through the #FossilFuel stage but can skip it and go straight to clean energy and renewables. One useful summary of this is provided here by Wartsila (a renewable energy company) but there are many critics. Obviously some real #ClimateJustice issues here.
https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy/pathways-for-africas-energy-future
38/n #COP28 🧵 An important addition/corrective to post 35 ⬆️ on #ODSP above, especially as that got quite a lot of traction. Thank you to @WahbAllat for providing this - it’s really important to not go down the “those bad Saudis” route. In fact, the #US remains the world’s leading oil and gas behemoth and continues to grow, with a record 12.9m barrels of crude oil, more than double what was produced a decade ago, forecast to be extracted in 2023.
39/n Here also a brillant sum-up by Timmons Roberts (CSSN) of what we - those of us who desperately want #COP28 to deliver real, much needed #ClimateAction - are always up against in the #FossilFuel lobby:
“a highly sophisticated, well-funded network of people who are used to winning, and to winning big” .
Btw #CSSN (Climate Social Science Network), set up by Timmons, does really great, incisive work on #ClimateObstruction and #ClimateDelay - do check it out
40/n Final addition today: everyone please read and share this beautiful, heartbreaking post by @bwinbwin
about the #MarshallIslands. It was written in response to a few posts (11 and 34 ⬆️) about the wonderful Tina Stegen, climate envoy of the Marshall Islands- do watch the videos, too, she speaks so powerfully. We should all try and approach #COP28 as Marshall Islanders, and with “Mantin Majel” wisdom ❤️:
41/n #COP28 🧵 Well today Al Jaber announced that 1.5°C and an “unprecedented outcome” are within reach. Wouldn’t it be amazing if he - CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - actually delivered this? In Dubai?
I would love it to happen. Not just because this would obviously be brilliant for everyone on this planet, but also just as a story! So go for it!
And yes: I KNOW. McKinsey will not take us to under 1.5, that’s for sure.
@pvonhellermannn @scottgal Yeah, that’s not happening I don’t think
42/n #COP28 This #Heated piece by Emily Atkin says exactly what i have been trying to express in this thread:
“The fossil fuel interests attempting to corrupt COP28 would love nothing more than for us to look away. So we will continue to pay attention, not in spite of the bullshit, but because of it.”